Simulated nuclear contamination scenario, solid cancer risk assessment, and support to decision
Lima Sergio X.,
Costa Karolina P. S.,
Lima Zelmo R.,
Rother Fagner C.,
Araujo Olga M. O.,
Vital Helio C.,
Brum Tercio,
Junior Wilson F. R. S.,
Amorim Jose Carlos C.,
Healy Matthew J. F.,
Andrade Edson R.
Affiliations
Lima Sergio X.
Defense Engineering Graduate Program, Military Institute of Engineering, (IME), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Costa Karolina P. S.
Nuclear Engineering Institute (CNEN/IEN)Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Lima Zelmo R.
Nuclear Engineering Institute (CNEN/IEN)Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Rother Fagner C.
Institute of Radioprotection and Dosimetry (CNEN/IRD)Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Araujo Olga M. O.
Nuclear Engineering Graduate ProgramFederal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ)Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Vital Helio C.
Defense Engineering Graduate Program, Military Institute of Engineering, (IME), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Brum Tercio
Defense Engineering Graduate Program, Military Institute of Engineering, (IME), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Junior Wilson F. R. S.
Faculty of Engineering, Rio de Janeiro State University and IBRAG, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Amorim Jose Carlos C.
Defense Engineering Graduate Program, Military Institute of Engineering, (IME), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Healy Matthew J. F.
Cranfield Forensic Institute, Cranfield University and Defence Academy of the United KingdomShrivenham, SN6 8LA, United Kingdom
Andrade Edson R.
Defense Engineering Graduate Program, Military Institute of Engineering (IME), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Nuclear Engineering Institute (CNEN/IEN) Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The detonation of an (hypothetical) improvised nuclear device (IND) can generate atmospheric release of radioactive material in the form of particles and dust that ultimately contaminate the soil. In this study, the detonation of an IND in an urban area was simulated, and its effects on humans were determined. The risk of solid cancer development due to radiation was calculated by taking into account prompt radiation and whole-body exposure of individuals near the detonation site up to 10 km. The excess relative risk (ERR) of developing solid cancer was evaluated by using the mathematical relationships from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) studies and those from the HotSpot code. The methodology consists of using output data obtained from simulations performed with the HotSpot health physics code plugging in such numbers into a specific given equation used by RERF to evaluate the resulting impact. Such a preliminary procedure is expected to facilitate the decision-making process significantly.
