Excess mortality related to high air temperature: Comparison of the periods including 1994 and 2018, the worst heat waves in the history of South Korea.

Abstract

Climate change has caused extreme weather events, including frequent summer heat waves. We examined how the effects of high air temperatures on mortality have changed between the two study periods (1991-1995 and 2015-2019), including 1994 and 2018, the worst heat wave years in the meteorological history of South Korea. Temperature data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and mortality data from Statistics Korea were used in this study. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the cumulative relative risks (CRRs) to determine the association between daily maximum temperature in summer (June to September) and mortality. CRRs were estimated for each province and pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis for all provinces. Maximum temperature and annual average days in heat wave were 37.7°C and 11.8 in 1991-1995 and 38.3°C and 18.8 in 2015-2019. The slope of the CRR for mortality increases with increasing temperature and has been steeper in the past than in recent years and steeper in those over 65 than in those under 65. Excess mortality has recently declined compared with that in the past. The impact of high summer temperatures on mortality changed between the two periods, suggesting improved population resilience.