Innovative and polygonal trend analysis of temperature in agro climatic zones of India

Abstract

Abstract Understanding the long-term trends in temperature is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, human and animal health, and natural habitats. An in-depth analysis of long-term spatio-temporal trends of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures along with Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) from 1951 to 2022 in various Agro-Climatic Zones (ACZs) of India was performed using newly introduced Innovative Polygonal Trend Analysis (IPTA) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) along with traditional Mann-Kendall (MK) or modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) tests. The MK/m-MK and IPTA assessments detected significant trends in 44.6% and 86% of the time series data, respectively, while the ITA method detected significant trends in every time series data. The southern, western, and central parts of India are consistently experiencing rising monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The western dry region, Central Plateau & Hills, East Coast Plains & Hills, Gujarat Plains & Hills, West Coast Plains & Hills, Southern Plateau & Hills, Western Plateau & Hills and Eastern Himalayan Region predominantly show increasing trends in both maximum and minimum temperatures in all months. The Indo-Gangetic Plains (Middle, Trans, Upper and Lower) exhibit decreasing trends in maximum temperatures during January, February, May, and June. The DTR showed increasing trends in the northern and western parts, while it has increasing trends in the central and southern parts of the country. The results of this study provide valuable information to assist in precise and informed decision-making on agricultural resource management and socio-economic policies.

Keywords

• Climate change
• IPTA
• ITA
• Mann–Kendall
• Sen’s slope
• Trend maps