Performance Assessment of Valuation Models in Tehran Stock Exchange

Abstract

This paper examines the accuracy of valuation models in providing reasonable estimation of the market values of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Six valuation models including Gordon Growth Model, Two Stage Dividend discount Model, Adjusted Present Value, Price to Earning ratio and Residual Income were examined in this study. In addition, three proxies represent the market values of stock during year: Max {Min}, Min {Max} and Average. The comparison was made in terms of models’ Median Absolute Percentage Errors (MdAPEs). Wilcoxon’s Rank Sum non-parametric test was used in order to test the hypothesis of significant difference among valuation models MdAPEs. The results revealed that Price to Earning ratio gives the most accurate estimation of the market values of companies while the Residual Income model and Free Cash Flow to Equity holder model have the poorest performance which is in total contradiction with the results of other researches conducted in other parts of the world.

Keywords

• market value proxy
• median absolute percent errors
• sustainable growth rate
• valuation
• wilcoxon rank sum test