Temporal variation in river ice phenology of the Heilongjiang River in response to climate change

Abstract

Study region: Upstream of the Heilongjiang River, located in Northeast Asia, is the transboundary river between China and Russia. Study focus: Using long-term hydrological records provided by the Mohe station in combination with multiple statistical approaches, we investigate how river ice phenology of the Heilongjiang River has varied during the period 1957–2016, and quantitatively assess the individual contribution of changes in different climatic factors to such variation in river ice phenology. New insights for the region: We show the later occurrence for newly formed ice date, ice-on date, and freeze-up date and the earlier occurrence for beak-up date and ice-off date, ultimately leading to a decrease in persistence of river ice in the Heilongjiang River. River ice phenology exhibits a general lag response to climate change, with ranging from 1 to 5 months. Further attribution analysis that explicitly considers time-lag effect suggests that climate change plays a dominant role in regulating river ice phenology. More specifically, compared to other climatic factors, air pressure and maximum and minimum temperature changes have larger contributions to variation in river ice phenology, particularly for the delay of formation time. These findings provide technical basis and beneficial reference to the development of regional river management strategies involved in climate change adaptation framework.

Keywords

• River ice phenology
• Climate change
• Temporal dynamic
• Observation-based analysis