Forecast of Corruption: From Ethical to Pragmatic Considerations

Abstract

From an ethical standpoint, combating corruption is crucial for promoting justice and equality. The rule of law and ethical governance involves clear standards of behavior for public servants and mechanisms for ensuring these standards are upheld. Corruption undermines public trust in government and democratic institutions and exacerbates social inequality and injustice (disproportionately affects the poor and marginalized groups, denying them access to essential services and opportunities). The fight against corruption during a full-scale war has ethical and purely pragmatic implications for Ukraine, the data of which formed the basis of this study. The lack of tangible progress in the fight against corruption in general, the lack of transparency of many institutional mechanisms in public administration, the revealed corruption schemes in the distribution of international military and humanitarian aid, as well as in the field of public defence procurement, the lack of punishment for corrupt officials in the highest echelons of power threaten the loyalty of international donors and allies, reduce Ukraine’s authority in the international arena, slows down Ukraine’s movement towards the EU, and significantly affects the decisions of foreign partners. The article demonstrates the results of forecasting the future level of corruption in Ukraine (for 2024‒2027) based on the retrospective dynamics of the Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International for 1998‒2023. Two economic and mathematical models are used for forecasting: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), which better reflects long-term historical trends and fluctuations, and the exponential smoothing method, which is more sensitive to the latest values of the time series. The statistical analysis package STATISTICA was used for the calculations. The forecasting results are disappointing since both methods showed an expected decrease in the level of corruption in 2024-2027, but in critically low volumes: by 1 point according to the ARIMA model and by 3-4 points according to the exponential smoothing method. The results of this study can serve as a basis for public advocacy campaigns as an argument for the need to radically revise the existing format of anti-corruption policy in Ukraine given its European future.

Keywords

• anti-corruption policy
• arima model
• corruption
• corruption perception index
• exponential smoothing ethics
• forecast