Prediction of urban residential electricity security based on Verhulst grey model

Abstract

This paper firstly analyzes the urban residential electricity load characteristics and extracts residential electricity load data through a non-intrusive electricity load monitoring framework with electricity load characteristics. Secondly, the gray Verhulst model is improved by using function transformation and residual correction to further improve its prediction accuracy. Finally, a prediction example analysis is carried out for the electric load under urban residential electricity security. The results show that the maximum prediction error of the improved gray Verhulst model is 2.28%, which is 1.34 percentage points lower than the 3.62% of the genetic algorithm GM(1,1) model. This indicates that the prediction of urban residential electricity security can be achieved using the improved gray Verhulst model.

Keywords

• electric load monitoring
• load characteristics
• residual correction
• gray verhulst model
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