Intelligent Forecast Model for Project Cost in Guangdong Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network

Abstract

Project cost forecasting is a complex and critical process, and it is of paramount importance for the successful implementation of engineering projects. Accurately forecasting project costs can help project managers and relevant decision-makers make informed decisions, thereby avoiding unnecessary cost overruns and time delays. Furthermore, accurately forecasting project costs can make important contributions to better controlling engineering costs, optimizing resource allocation, and reducing project risks. To establish a high-precision cost forecasting model for construction projects in Guangdong Province, based on case data of construction projects in Guangdong Province, this paper first uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to obtain the characteristic parameters that affect project costs. Then, a neural network training and testing dataset is constructed, and a genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the initial weights and biases of the neural network. The GA-BP neural network is used to establish a cost forecasting model for construction projects in Guangdong Province. Finally, by using parameter sensitivity analysis theory, the importance of the characteristic values that affect the project cost is ranked, and the optimal direction for controlling the project cost is obtained. The results showed: (1) The determination coefficient between the forecasting and actual values of the project cost forecasting model based on the BP neural network testing set is 0.87. After GA optimization, the determination coefficient between the forecasting and actual values of the GA-BP neural network testing set is 0.94. The accuracy of the intelligent forecast model for construction project cost in Guangdong Province has been significantly improved after optimization through GA. (2) Based on sensitivity analysis of neural network parameters, the most significant factor affecting the cost of construction projects in Guangdong Province is the number of above-ground floors, followed by the main structure type, foundation structure, above-ground building area, total building area, underground building area, fortification intensity, and building height. The results of parameter sensitivity analysis indicate the direction for cost control in construction projects. The research results of this paper provide theoretical guidance for cost control in construction projects.

Keywords

• project cost
• bp neural network
• genetic algorithm (GA)
• forecast model
• parameter sensitivity analysis