Probability-temporal analysis of reliability indicators kinetics at the stage of designing a rope system of a mobile transport and reloading ropeway

Abstract

The article presents a method of computer simulation of the process of time-varying reliability indicators of a key structural element of a mobile ropeway — the rope system as a whole. The method is based on the developed probabilistic mathematical model. At the design stage of the mobile ropeway, it allows predicting the kinetics of reliability indicators during operation of the rope system as a whole, as well as its individual subsystems and structural elements, taking into account the timing and volume of repair and restoration work. She also conduct modeling of the operational stage of the life cycle. The calculation of the probability of finding the rope system in possible combinations of its states at an arbitrary point in time is based on the solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov linear differential equation system, which is periodically rebuilt at the time moments of scheduled repairs of the mobile ropeway. The results of a test example of calculation in relation to a specific designed mobile ropeway are presented.

Keywords

• mobile ropeway
• rope system
• reliability
• probability-time analysis.