EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PREVALENCE AND MORBIDITY OF THE POPULATION WITH CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Abstract

Objective: Assessing the dynamics of the long-term trend of prevalence and primary incidence of cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) among different populations of the Kyrgyz Republic (KR). Methods: The main source of information for assessing the incidence of the population of CVD was data from the National Medical Information Center (NMIC) of the Ministry of Healthcare. Retrospective epidemiological study of the prevalence and primary incidence of CVD in the long-term dynamics of 2002-2017 was conducted. Calculated the growth rate (reduction) using the method of the smallest squares to align the dynamic series; a comparative analysis of morbidity rates in groups of age groups and in the context of nine administrative and territorial units of the KR with the calculation of the average multi-year incidence levels (AMIL). Results: In the long-term dynamics (from 2002 to 2017) there is a moderate trend towards an increase in prevalence rates (the rate of growth compared to 2002 was 1.3%) and AMIL 843.9. Among strokes that determine the incidence of CVD, ischemic stroke (60.8%) has the highest proportion. In the long-term dynamics, there is a pronounced tendency to increase unspecified strokes (the growth rate was 10.3%), AMIL incidence – 23.0±2,80/0000. There is a marked upward trend in the incidence of the disease of the studied pathology among children (the rate of increase was 47%). In the 9 administrative territories of the KR there is a fairly strong difference between the AMIL and the CVD among the child population, ranging from 1.00/0000 to 20.90/0000 cases, i.e. territorial differences reach up to 20.9 times; adults and adolescents – from 211.10/0000 to 3127.80/0000 (differences up to 14.8 times). Of the nine administrative territories of the KR, the largest proportion of AMIL morbidity among adults and adolescents is observed in Bishkek, and among children – in the Osh region. AMIL prevalence and primary incidence of strokes in men are statistically, significantly higher than in women. In the long-term dynamics, there is an increase in mortality rates from ischemic strokes with a rate of increase compared to 2002 year – 37.5%, along with a decrease in mortality from hemorrhagic and unspecified strokes. The largest proportion of CVD cases over the past year (2017) is over the age of 70 (32%). Conclusion: The actuality of the problem of CVD in the KR is due to a moderate trend of growth rates of prevalence with the highest proportion of ischemic stroke. The expressed growth trend is caused by unspecified strokes. The largest proportion of AMIL morbidity of adult and adolescent CVD is observed in Bishkek, and among children – in the Osh region. Strokes are more common in males.

Keywords

• cerebrovascular diseases
• epidemiological analysis
• stroke
• long-term dynamics.