Can we detect X/M/C-class solar flares from global navigation satellite system data?

Abstract

Based on the total electron content (TEC) data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), we analyzed 224 classified solar flares (SFs) occurred in 2014–2017. We suggest an algorithm for SF automatic detection. The algorithm is based on analysis of GNSS-TEC variation derivative averaged over all the sunlit ionospheric pierce points. The algorithm enabled to confidently detect all X-class SFs, 81% events, when the X-ray peak was within 10–100 μW/m2, and 32%, when the X-ray peak was within 1–10 μW/m2. The false positive error was 25%. 2000 MSC: 86-05, Keywords: GNSS, Ionosphere, Solar flares, Detection, Total electron content