Verification of Weather and Seasonal Forecast Information Concerning the Peri-Urban Farmers’ Needs in the Lower Ganges Delta in Bangladesh

Abstract

Skillful weather and seasonal predictions have considerable socio-economic potential and could provide meaningful information to farmers and decision-makers towards agricultural planning and decision-making. Peri-urban farmers in the Lower Ganges Delta need skillful forecast information to deal with increased hydroclimatic variability. In the current study, verification of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ System 5 (ECMWF SEAS5) seasonal prediction system is performed against ground observations for the Lower Ganges Delta using three skills assessment metrics. Additionally, meteoblue hindcasts are verified for Khulna station according to the peri-urban farmers’ needs and an assessment of onset/offset dates of rainy season is also conducted using the same ground observations. The results indicated that the skill of both examined products is limited during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods, especially in the west side of the Bay of Bengal. However, during the dry winter season, skill is high, which could lead to potential agricultural benefits concerning irrigation planning. Interannual variability and trend indicated that onset dates have become later and that the length of the rainy season reduced. This could increase the pressure on the already challenging situation the farmers are experiencing, in relation to hydro-climatic variability.

Keywords

• rainfall
• seasonal forecast
• SEAS5
• meteoblue
• onset/offset
• sustainable agriculture