Uncertainty in Irrigation Technology: Insights from a CGE Approach

Abstract

The benefits of technological improvement are uncertain. The timing of the introduction and take-up of new technologies is difficult to estimate. Technological improvements play a decisive role in water policy. In the context of water policy design, we evaluate the implications of uncertainty in the gradual process of enhancements to the efficiency of irrigation water use, for a better understanding of the extent to which these improvements could mitigate the output losses derived from water constraints. To accomplish this, we address simultaneous sensitivity analyses within a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze different uncertainty scenarios. Our results show that the date on which advanced technology becomes available and enters general use is quite significant. The greater and faster the improvements in irrigation technologies, the better.

Keywords

• CGE models
• technological change
• uncertainty
• irrigation modernisation