Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM)

Abstract

Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS), which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present), 2015 - 2039 (Near-future), and 2075 - 2099 (Future), provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM). Ten extreme rainfall (top ten) events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present) and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present), respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

Keywords

• IFAS
• High-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S
• Flood simulation
• Tsengwen Reservoir watershed
• Global climate change