L’impact des migrations sur les compositions par âge des populations locales : typologie cantonale pour une analyse rétrospective et prospective

Abstract

Strongly affected by residential mobility, local age structures have a well defined profile. The effects of migration on age structures of the 3,686 French cantonal-districts can be summarized in 4 great clusters reflecting the 4 main factors of residential mobility (higher education, post-graduate employment, family process, end of working life). An in-depth analysis of the influence of migrations leads to defining 15 clusters, from the most characterised to the medium types. A projection method taking into account all migration flows between local territories shows that, in an European context of faster ageing, carrying on with recent migration behaviours would lead to an increase of the spatial heterogeneity of age structures. A prospective discussion tries to evaluate the role of qualitative factors (technological, energy-related, social and economic) on future internal migration flows.

Keywords

• age structure
• local population
• residential mobility
• internal migration
• population projection