Simulating and predicting the development trends of the water–energy–food–ecology system in Henan Province, China

Abstract

The intricate interplay among water, energy, food, and ecology underscores the paramount importance of investigating water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) systems to foster regional sustainable development. In this study, a dynamic simulation model for the WEFE system was formulated using system dynamics, probing alterations in resource supply, demand dynamics, and ecosystem responses to resource shifts. Utilizing Henan Province as a case study and factoring in resource scarcity and environmental pollution, five scenarios were crafted to forecast WEFE system developmental trajectories from 2005 to 2035. The findings revealed the following key insights: (1) Within each subsystem, the food supply–demand balance ratio maintained a robust level of approximately 4.0. Conversely, the water and energy supply–demand balance ratio remained below 1.0 throughout the study period, indicating a worsening trend in the annual misalignment between supply and demand. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to surge by 103%, posing challenges for future CO2 emission reduction efforts. (2) Among the various scenarios, the Green Development (GD) scenario emerged as pivotal for fostering a coordinated development of the WEFE system. Implementation of the GD scenario showcased a notable 38.1% improvement in the resource supply–demand ratio and a 26% reduction in CO2 emissions. (3) Addressing ecosystem feedback, the reduction of carbon emissions emerges as a focal point for future ecological environment enhancement initiatives in Henan Province. Strategic emphasis should be placed on adjusting energy consumption and its structure to propel the healthy development of the ecological environment. This study serves as a guide for managing regional WEFE systems effectively.

Keywords

• Water–energy–food–ecology system
• System dynamics modeling
• Resource supply and demand
• Scenario simulation
• Henan Province