Global Ecology and Conservation (Apr 2021)
Ensembpecies distribution modeling of Salvia hydrangea under future climate change scenarios in Central Zagros Mountains, Iran
Abstract
Medicinal and aromatic plants, such as Salvia hydrangea DC. Ex Benth., have been highly popular all over the world throughout the time. Future climate change is believed to be one of the great threats to the range and resilience of these species. Therefore, recognizing the extensive spatial distribution and potential effects of global climate change on S. hydrangea in its major habitats (Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari province: CVBP, Central Zagros Mountains: CZMs, Iran) is of considerable importance. We recorded the data concerning occurrence points data using the global positioning system (GPS). We also collected bioclimatic and topographic variables from the WorldClim-global climate dataset to model the current and future (under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 within two global circulation models HadGEM2-CC and MRI-CGCM3 for 2050 and 2070) habitat suitability for S. hydrangea employing an ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM) on BIOMOD2 package. The visualization of an ensemble forecasting model of the true skill statistic (TSS) > 0.8 models revealed that the majority of suitable habitats for this species were situated in the east and southeast of this province. Generally, precipitation of coldest season, temperature annual range, and elevation variables were of great importance for our study model. Comparing the current and future habitat suitability distribution of S. hydrangea, it could be concluded that the plant distribution is migrating between different latitudes and altitudes. The results suggested that the scenarios of MIRI-CGCM3 probably create serious effects and implications on the future distribution of S. hydrangea habitats. The loss of habitat of this species in the southeast of this province was considerably more visible, indicating a significant diminution in the distribution area. However, the potential distribution of S. hydrangea in this province would face alarming conditions between 2050 and 2070. Consequently, S. hydrangea could be particularly in need of conservation plans, which is urgently needed in order to reduce climate change-associated impacts.
