Modeling, Assessment, and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Hebei–Tianjin Coastal Wetlands

Abstract

The role of carbon storage in coastal wetlands is crucial to the global carbon cycle and human production activities. An accurate quantitative assessment and understanding of its spatial distribution are essential for informed decision-making on sustainable development goals. This study focuses on the wetlands in the coastal zones of Hebei and Tianjin. It develops a comprehensive assessment model that spans a long time series, covering the past, present, and future, aiming to provide insights into the intrinsic linkages between coastal wetland types and carbon storage, as well as projected future trends under three different scenarios. The results of the study demonstrate the following: (1) between 1990 and 2020, the area of coastal wetlands in Hebei and Tianjin decreased by 365.63 km2, resulting in a loss of 5.15 Tg of carbon storage, which represents approximately 20.82% of the total carbon storage; (2) temperature, precipitation, and the intensity of human activities are key factors influencing carbon storage in coastal wetlands; (3) carbon storage in the coastal wetlands of Hebei and Tianjin is primarily composed of natural wetlands, which account for 59.62% to 60.69% of the total carbon storage, and this ratio is not expected to change significantly in the future; (4) under WRS, carbon storage in the Hebei–Tianjin coastal wetlands is projected to increase, reaching 19.76 Tg by 2050—an increase of 0.21 Tg compared to 2020. This growth trend in carbon storage is significantly better than under the natural and EPS scenarios and aligns more closely with dual-carbon goals. This study not only provides managers with valuable insights into land use and urban development planning but also highlights the positive role of WRS in contributing to the growth of carbon storage in coastal wetlands.

Keywords

• carbon storage
• coastal wetlands
• Hebei–Tianjin
• driving factors
• dual carbon