Temporal asymmetries in inferring unobserved past and future events

Abstract

Abstract Unlike temporally symmetric inferences about simple sequences, inferences about our own lives are asymmetric: we are better able to infer the past than the future, since we remember our past but not our future. Here we explore whether there are asymmetries in inferences about the unobserved pasts and futures of other people’s lives. In two experiments (analyses of the replication experiment were pre-registered), our participants view segments of two character-driven television dramas and write out what they think happens just before or after each just-watched segment. Participants are better at inferring unseen past (versus future) events. This asymmetry is driven by participants’ reliance on characters’ conversational references in the narrative, which tend to favor the past. This tendency is also replicated in a large-scale analysis of conversational references in natural conversations. Our work reveals a temporal asymmetry in how observations of other people’s behaviors can inform inferences about the past and future.