Accurate Short-Term Power Forecasting of Wind Turbines: The Case of Jeju Island’s Wind Farm

Abstract

Short-term wind power forecasting is a technique which tells system operators how much wind power can be expected at a specific time. Due to the increasing penetration of wind generating resources into the power grids, short-term wind power forecasting is becoming an important issue for grid integration analysis. The high reliability of wind power forecasting can contribute to the successful integration of wind generating resources into the power grids. To guarantee the reliability of forecasting, power curves need to be analyzed and a forecasting method used that compensates for the variability of wind power outputs. In this paper, we analyzed the reliability of power curves at each wind speed using logistic regression. To reduce wind power forecasting errors, we proposed a short-term wind power forecasting method using support vector machine (SVM) based on linear regression. Support vector machine is a type of supervised leaning and is used to recognize patterns and analyze data. The proposed method was verified by empirical data collected from a wind turbine located on Jeju Island.

Keywords

• wind power forecasting
• enhancing reliability
• power curve
• support vector machine (SVM)
• support vector regression (SVR)