Dianxin kexue (Mar 2019)
An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival
Abstract
The effects of Spring Festival on electricity sales of different trades were considered and an adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result was proposed.Firstly,the month-quarter ratio of historical electricity sales in each trade of every month in the first quarter and the distance between Spring Festival and the first day of every month in the first quarter was used to create a functional relationship.Then,the distance between Spring Festival and the first day of every month in the first quarter of the target year was used as input and the predicted month-quarter ratio of electricity sales of each trade of every month in the first quarter of the target year was calculated according to the functional relationship.The adjusted electricity sales forecasting result can then be computed by using the predicted month-quarter ratio and the electricity sales forecasting of each trade of every month in the first quarter of the target year before adjustment.The adjustment result shows that the proposed method can effectively lower the error of electricity sales forecasting in the first quarter.
