Forecasting the Timing of the Emergence of a Dominant Design: The Case of the Projectors

Abstract

The timing of market entry is important for companies to achieve commercial success. The relationship between good market entry timing and the emergence of a dominant design was discussed. However, the dominant design was assumed to be known only in retrospect. In this study, targeting the projector industry, we demonstrate that the timing of the emergence of the dominant design can be forecast in advance by deriving the time relationship between product launch and patent application. The emergence of dominant designs and the timing of their emergence were identified based on the analysis of product trends in the market. The timing of the patent application that the dominant design will emerge was forecast based on the analysis of technology trends using patent information. The cycle type of the projector industry was considered, and the time lag between patent application and product launch was inferred. This study provides a useful insight into the dominant design.

Keywords

• dominant design
• patent analysis
• process innovation
• product innovation
• projector