Climate change leads to range contraction for Japanese population of the Oriental Honey-Buzzards: Implications for future conservation strategies

Abstract

Over the past decades, global environmental changes have led to unfavorable effects on migratory birds. However, many species that encounter climate change are listed as least concern by International Union for Conservation of Nature. Using species distribution models, we quantified the redistributions of breeding and wintering sites of oriental honey buzzards, OHB (Pernis ptilorhynchus), a long-distance migratory raptor that often preys on the larvae of wasps and bees under changing climate based on shared socio-economic pathways scenarios. We also incorporated climate and land use risks based on climate anomalies and vegetation dynamics to assess future conservation strategies. The results revealed a significant range contraction on the wintering and breeding areas of the OHB species by 2050 and 2100. Our results suggest that the migration distance will likely increase under all scenarios. In addition, we found many high-risk areas across OHB habitats while refugia areas were relatively only covered a small proportion. Habitat restoration and developing new protected areas become a fundamental strategy for OHB conservation. Our approaches have provided comprehensive insights into broad biogeographic dynamics under multifaceted threats and how to tackle global changes through the specific landscape management for long-distance migrants.

Keywords

• Climate shifting
• Conservation planning
• Crested honey-buzzard
• Species distribution models
• Macrorefugia
• Shared socioeconomic pathways