Sex- and Time-Dependent Patterns in Risk Factors of End-Stage Renal Disease: A Large Austrian Cohort with up to 20 Years of Follow-Up.

Abstract

We investigated the association between metabolic factors and End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and quantified the magnitude of their influence dependent on sex and time of exposure up to 20 years.A prospective cohort study was conducted to determine risk factors for the development of ESRD. From 1988 to 2005 185,341 persons (53.9% women) participated in the "Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme" (VHM&PP). Data on body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic (BPsys) and diastolic (BPdia) blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and smoking status were collected. Data of the population-based VHM&PP were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD, stratified by sex and 5-year time intervals.During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 patients (39.1% women) developed ESRD. Significant risk factors were: BMI (per 1 kg/m2) HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.06), FBG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.09 (1.05-1.12), BPsys (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.10 (1.07-1.14), BPdia (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.09 (1.03-1.15), TG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.07 (1.02-1.13), TC (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.22 (1.13-1.32). We observed a sex-specific risk pattern with an increased ESRD risk for men for increasing TG and smoking, and for women for increasing BMI and GGT. In time interval analyses BPsys and TC were associated with early ESRD onset, whereas BMI, FBG, BPdia and GGT were associated with later onset.Anthropometric and metabolic factors are differentially associated with the long-term risk for ESRD in a sex- and time-dependent manner. Consideration of these patterns in preventive and therapeutic strategies could have an impact on ESRD incidence.