Future perspective of China's feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

Abstract

China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model—China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China's per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.

Keywords

• feed demand
• food consumption pattern
• partial equilibrium model