Confidence Interval Approach to Weather Forecasting with Horizon Based Genetic Programming

Abstract

Being able to forecast events has always been important for humans. Humans did forecasting by inspecting movements of material and non-material objects in ancient times. However, thanks to the technological developments and the increasing amount of data in recent years, forecasting is now done by computers, especially by machine learning methods. One of the areas where these methods are used frequently is numerical weather forecasting. In this type of forecast, short, medium and long-term weather forecasts are made using historical data. However, predictions are inherently error-prone phenomena and should be stated which error range the predictions fall. In this study, numerical weather forecasting was done by combining Genetic Programming and Inductive Conformal Prediction method. The effect of 10 and 20 days of historical data on short (1-day), medium (3-days) and long-term (5-days) weather forecasts was examined. Results suggested that Genetic Programming has a good potential to be used in this area. However, when Genetic Programming was combined with the Inductive Conformal Prediction method, it was shown that forecasts gave meaningful results only in short-term; forecasts made for medium and long-term did not produce meaningful results.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• confidence interval
• prediction
• genetic programming
• yapay zeka
• genetik programlama
• güven aralığı
• tahmin