Ecological Indicators (Apr 2025)
Simulation of regional green development policies under the nexus of water-energy-food-ecology: A case study of the Yangtze River economic Belt
Abstract
Green development, as a development strategy in China, imposes higher demands on the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus. To alleviate resource and ecological pressures, this study constructs a complex mega-system that focuses on water, energy, food, and ecology as well as economic, social, and environmental aspects based on complex systems science. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, system dynamics is used to establish the causal feedback mechanisms of the WEFE system. The study simulates the supply–demand and ecological changes of water, energy, and food in the YREB from 2020 to 2030, and conducted a simulation of regional green development policy under the WEFE nexus. The results showed that under the ecological priority policy, the green space area increased by 3.4%, and food production rose by 1.7%, significantly enhancing the ecological environment and increasing food yields. It is estimated that by 2030, the energy self-sufficiency rate will reach 60.2% with the implementation of strengthened hydroelectric energy policy, reducing industrial SO2 emissions by 36,000 tons and reversing the declining trend of energy self-sufficiency while controlling industrial SO2 emissions. However, the challenge of insufficient energy supply during the “transition period” remains significant. Under the policy of technological innovation, water usage decreased by 26.6%, energy consumption decreased by 11.2%, and food production increased by 20.827 million tons, resulting in varying degrees of improvement in water, energy, food, and ecology subsystems. Nevertheless, technological innovation policies cannot reverse the continuing decline in energy self-sufficiency. The policy of comprehensive coordinated development significantly improves ecological quality, the development and utilization rate of water resources, energy self-sufficiency, and food surplus.
