Machine Learning Approach to Predict Risk of 90-Day Hospital Readmissions in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Implications for Quality Improvement in Healthcare

Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) in the elderly population is projected to increase over the next several decades. Catheter ablation shows promise as a treatment option and is becoming increasingly available. We examined 90-day hospital readmission for AF patients undergoing catheter ablation and utilized machine learning methods to explore the risk factors associated with these readmission trends. Methods: Data from the 2013 Nationwide Readmissions Database on AF cases were used to predict 90-day readmissions for AF with catheter ablation. Multiple machine learning methods such as k-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, and Support Vector Machine were employed to determine variable importance and build risk prediction models. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were compared for each model. Results: The 90-day hospital readmission rate was 17.6%; the average age of the patients was 64.9 years; 62.9% of patients were male. Important variables in predicting 90-day hospital readmissions in patients with AF undergoing catheter ablation included the age of the patient, number of diagnoses on the patient’s record, and the total number of discharges from a hospital. The k-Nearest Neighbor had the best performance with a prediction accuracy of 85%. This was closely followed by Decision Tree, but Support Vector Machine was less ideal. Conclusions: Machine learning methods can produce accurate models in predicting hospital readmissions for patients with AF. The likelihood of readmission to the hospital increases as the patient age, total number of hospital discharges, and total number of patient diagnoses increase. Findings from this study can inform quality improvement in healthcare and in achieving patient-centered care.