Systems-Oriented Modelling Methods in Preventing and Controlling Emerging Infectious Diseases in the Context of Healthcare Policy: A Scoping Review

Abstract

Background: Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) arise and affect society in complex ways. We conducted a scoping review to explore how systems-oriented methods have been used to prevent and control EIDs. Methods: We used the Joanna Briggs Institute framework for scoping reviews in this study. We included peer-reviewed articles about health care systems preparedness and response, published from 1 January 2000. We considered the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) list of prioritised diseases for research and development when choosing the pathogens and only included studies that considered the dynamics between the system’s elements. Results: Our initial search yielded 9985 studies. After screening, 177 studies were considered for inclusion in this review. After assessment by two independent reviewers, seven studies were included. The studies were published between 2009 and 2021. Most focused on sarbecoviruses and targeted healthcare policymakers and governments. System dynamics approaches were the most used methods. Most of the studies incorporated the classical epidemiological models alongside systems-oriented methods. The studies were conducted in context of diseases dynamics and its burden on human health, the economy and healthcare systems. The most reported challenge was epidemiological and geographical data timeliness and quality. Conclusions: Systems dynamics approaches can help policy makers understand the elements of a complex system and thus offer potential solutions for preventing and controlling EIDs.

Keywords

• emerging infectious diseases
• systems thinking
• systems approach
• systems dynamics
• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV1