Post-Dodon Moldova: Prospects for the Development of RussianMoldovan Relations

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the prospects for the development of Russian-Moldovan relations after the victory of Maia Sandu in the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova. The work examines the historical background and the current state of political and economic cooperation between Russia and Moldova. It is outlined that Russia retains its importance for Moldova in the felds of energy security and food exports; at the same time, a signifcant economic imbalance in relations is emphasized. The authors point to the instability of bilateral interaction due to three circumstances: external factors (primarily, the influence of the European Union), the stance of the newly elected president of the republic, and the balance of political forces in the national parliament of Moldova. According to the authors, the assumption of power by a pro-European politician does not imply Moldova’s unilateral refusal to cooperate with Russia. Despite the obvious intention to accelerate the country’s integration into the European Union, the new leadership is not yet ready to abandon the dialogue with Moscow. In the political, economic, and military profles of Moldova, Russia remains one of the most important partners. Since the internal political transformations in the republic carry the potential to diminish Russian influence over Moldova, the authors highlight possible steps on the Russian side that are capable of strengthening the existing foundation of positive interaction between countries, based on a study of the current confguration of bilateral relations. It is particularly underlined that against the background of the existing parameters of the modern system of international relations, even in the event of the most pessimistic scenario, the damage to Russian interests (apart from reputational losses) can be assessed as relatively insignifcant.

Keywords

• russia, moldova, european integration, igor dodon, maia sandu, transnistria