Ecological Indicators (Nov 2024)
Quantification and multiscenario simulation of ecological compensation and economic development coupling relationships in the YRB, China
Abstract
Human activities frequently interfere with the natural environment, and environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. How to characterize the ecological compensation (EC) standard and how to quantify the coupling relationship between EC and economic development (ED) are still problems that need to be solved in research on EC mechanisms. We used 19 provincial-level administrative regions in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) as the research area, calculated the EC standard based on the opportunity cost method, and analyzed the changes in the EC time series. The EC and ED coupling stage and coupling coordination type are determined by introducing the coupling coordination degree model in the YRB. Five scenarios, i.e., sustainability (SSP1), middle of the road (SSP2), regional rivalry (SSP3), inequality (SSP4), and fossil-fueled development (SSP5), were set on the basis of system dynamics and the shared socioeconomic pathways framework to simulate the evolutionary trends of EC and ED in the YRB. The results showed that (1) both direct and indirect opportunity costs in the YRB increased during 2010–2020. (2) In general, the EC and ED coupling coordination level was relatively low, but a good trend is expected to develop over time. (3) Different scenarios and policy-oriented development paths directly affect the change trends of EC and ED. (4) Taking SSP2 as the benchmark, the change trends of the other four scenarios were compared and analyzed. The changes in EC and GDP under SSP1 and SSP5 were consistent, and both were greater than those under the other two scenarios. SSP5 had the most significant effect on economic growth, but it also required more investment in EC. In the SSP1 scenario, R&D investment is greater, and the advancement of science and technology is more beneficial for the environment and economic development. Among the variety of scenario simulations, SSP1 is the optimal scenario for developing the economy, the environment, and science and technology.
