Bogdanov–Takens Bifurcation of Kermack–McKendrick Model with Nonlinear Contact Rates Caused by Multiple Exposures

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the influence of a nonlinear contact rate caused by multiple contacts in classical SIR model. In this paper, we unversal unfolding a nilpotent cusp singularity in such systems through normal form theory, we reveal that the system undergoes a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation with codimension 2. During the bifurcation process, numerous lower codimension bifurcations may emerge simultaneously, such as saddle-node and Hopf bifurcations with codimension 1. Finally, employing the Matcont and Phase Plane software, we construct bifurcation diagrams and topological phase portraits. Additionally, we emphasize the role of symmetry in our analysis. By considering the inherent symmetries in the system, we provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamical behavior. Our findings suggest that if this occurrence rate is applied to the SIR model, it would yield different dynamical phenomena compared to those obtained by reducing a 3-dimensional dynamical model to a planar system by neglecting the disease mortality rate, which results in a stable nilpotent cusp singularity with codimension 2. We found that in SIR models with the same occurrence rate, both stable and unstable Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations occur, meaning both stable and unstable limit cycles appear in this system.

Keywords

• limit cycle
• Hopf bifurcation
• cusp
• nilpotent singularity