Numerical Simulation of a Giant-Hail-Bearing Mediterranean Supercell in the Adriatic Sea

Abstract

On 10 July 2019, a giant hail-bearing supercell hit the Adriatic coast of central Italy. Hailstones with a maximum diameter of 14 cm were reported in the city of Pescara between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. In this work, the main synoptic and mesoscale features, responsible for the triggering and the development of the supercell, are analyzed using the WRF model. The intrusion of Bora wind over the northern and central Adriatic was relevant for two reasons: on the one side, the arrival of low-level cold air produced an uplift of the pre-existing warm air and favored the triggering of convection; on the other side, the strong vertical wind shear, also due to the presence of intense upper-level southwesterlies, created conditions favorable to the formation of the supercell. The predictability of the event is also discussed, comparing simulations starting at different initial times and forced with GFS and IFS forecasts. The model results show that the runs initialized at earlier times reproduced more accurately the track and the time evolution of the supercell. The HAILCAST module of WRF was also used to simulate hailstorm characteristics, such as the average hailstone diameter. WRF-HAILCAST simulations proved to be in fair agreement with the radar reflectivity retrievals and with local reports.

Keywords

• WRF
• HAILCAST
• severe weather
• mediterranean supercell
• hail