A New Perspective of the Spring Predictability Barrier Based on the Zonal Sea Level Pressure Gradient

Abstract

Currently, the “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) is still a controversial problem in many atmosphere–ocean coupled models and has significant impacts on degrading the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions across the boreal spring. In this study, unlike previous studies that viewed the SPB issue from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST), based on the Bjerknes feedback theory and the decadal variations in Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific, a new perspective of the SPB is revealed by the seasonal variations in the observed zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient, which can reflect the stability and variability of the atmosphere–ocean interactions during the ENSO’s evolution. More importantly, a significant decadal variation of SPB strength (SPBS) is exhibited in the last 3 decades, from 1991 to 2020, which is strongly controlled by the dominant patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and Walker circulation, and associated with the background mean atmosphere–ocean states. That is to say, the atmosphere–ocean interaction pattern over the tropical Pacific has undergone decadal variations over the past 3 decades which determine the decadal variations in SPBS. International Research Institute for Climate and Society/Climate Prediction Center (IRI/CPC) multi-models show stronger SPBS during 2001–2010 than during 2011–2020, indicating that the decadal variations in SPBS from statistical analysis also exist in actual model predictions, which further confirms the rationality of this perspective of SPB based on the zonal SLP gradient.

Keywords

• ENSO
• SPB
• zonal SLP gradient
• decadal shift