Modeling Current and Future Potential Land Distribution Dynamics of Wheat, Rice, and Maize under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt

Abstract

Accurately predicting changes in the potential distribution of crops resulting from climate change has great significance for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring food security. After understanding the spatial and temporal suitability of wheat (Triticum aestivum), rice (Oryza sativa), and maize (Zea mays), as well as the main bioclimatic variables affecting crop growth, we used the MaxEnt model. The accuracy of the MaxEnt was extremely significant, with mean AUC (area under curve) values ranging from 0.876 to 0.916 for all models evaluated. The results showed that for wheat, annual mean temperature (Bio-1) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio-11) contributed 39.2% and 13.4%, respctively; for rice, precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio-18) and elevation contributed 34.9% and 19.9%, respectively; and for maize, Bio-1 and precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio-17) contributed 36.3% and 14.3%, respectively. The map drawn indicates that the suitability of wheat, rice, and corn in South Asia may change in the future. Understanding the future distribution of crops can help develop transformative climate change adaptation strategies that consider future crop suitability. The study showed an average significant improvement in high-suitable areas of 8.7%, 30.9%, and 13.1%, for wheat, rice, and maize, respectively; moderate-suitable area increases of 3.9% and 8.6% for wheat and rice, respectively; and a decrease of −8.3% for maize as compared with the current values. The change in the unsuitable areas significantly decreases by −2.5%, −13.5%, and −1.7% for wheat, rice, and maize, respectively, compared to current land suitability. The results of this study are crucial for South Asia as they provide policy-makers with an opportunity to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to sustain wheat, rice, and corn production in future climate scenarios.

Keywords

• geographic suitability
• land suitability dynamics
• bioclimatic variables
• big data
• MaxEnt model
• South Asia