Bayesian Approach to Stochastic Estimation of Population Survival Curves in Chile Using ABC Techniques and Its Impact over Social Structures

Abstract

In Chile and worldwide, life expectancy has consistently increased over the past six decades. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify, measure, and estimate the population mortality ratios in Chile, mortality estimates are used to calculate life expectancy when constructing life tables. The Bayesian approach, specifically through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is employed to optimize parameter selection for these calculations. ABC corresponds to a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics that could be used to estimate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. For this research, ABC was applied to estimate the mortality ratios in Chile, using information available from 2004 to 2021. The results showed heterogeneity in the results when selecting the best model. Additionally, it was possible to generate projections for the next 10 years for the series analysed in the research. Finally, the main contribution of this research is that we measured and estimated the population mortality rates in Chile, defining the optimal selection of parameters, in order to contribute to creating a link between social and technical sciences for the advancement and implementation of current knowledge in the field of social structures.

Keywords

• mortality
• older population
• life expectancy
• stochastic processes
• Bayesian analysis