Frontiers in Marine Science (Feb 2023)
Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem
- Michelle M. McClure,
- Michelle M. McClure,
- Melissa A. Haltuch,
- Ellen Willis-Norton,
- David D. Huff,
- Elliott L. Hazen,
- Lisa G. Crozier,
- Michael G. Jacox,
- Michael G. Jacox,
- Mark W. Nelson,
- Kelly S. Andrews,
- Lewis A.K. Barnett,
- Lewis A.K. Barnett,
- Lewis A.K. Barnett,
- Aaron M. Berger,
- Sabrina Beyer,
- Sabrina Beyer,
- Joe Bizzarro,
- Joe Bizzarro,
- David Boughton,
- Jason M. Cope,
- Mark Carr,
- Heidi Dewar,
- Edward Dick,
- Emmanis Dorval,
- Jason Dunham,
- Vladlena Gertseva,
- Correigh M. Greene,
- Richard G. Gustafson,
- Owen S. Hamel,
- Chris J. Harvey,
- Mark J. Henderson,
- Mark J. Henderson,
- Chris E. Jordan,
- Isaac C. Kaplan,
- Steven T. Lindley,
- Nathan J. Mantua,
- Sean E. Matson,
- Melissa H. Monk,
- Peter Moyle,
- Colin Nicol,
- Colin Nicol,
- John Pohl,
- Ryan R. Rykaczewski,
- Jameal F. Samhouri,
- Susan Sogard,
- Nick Tolimieri,
- John Wallace,
- Chantel Wetzel,
- Steven J. Bograd,
- Steven J. Bograd
Affiliations
- Michelle M. McClure
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Michelle M. McClure
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
- Melissa A. Haltuch
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Ellen Willis-Norton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- David D. Huff
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Elliott L. Hazen
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Monterey, CA, United States
- Lisa G. Crozier
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Michael G. Jacox
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Monterey, CA, United States
- Michael G. Jacox
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA OAR), Boulder, CO, United States
- Mark W. Nelson
- ECS Federal, Inc., under contract for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS) Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, United States
- Kelly S. Andrews
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Lewis A.K. Barnett
- School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
- Lewis A.K. Barnett
- Visiting Scientist at Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Lewis A.K. Barnett
- Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Aaron M. Berger
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Sabrina Beyer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Sabrina Beyer
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Joe Bizzarro
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Joe Bizzarro
- 1Institute of Marine Science, University of California (UC), Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- David Boughton
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Jason M. Cope
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Mark Carr
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Heidi Dewar
- 2Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), La Jolla, CA, United States
- Edward Dick
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Emmanis Dorval
- 2Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), La Jolla, CA, United States
- Jason Dunham
- 3U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Corvallis, OR, United States
- Vladlena Gertseva
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Correigh M. Greene
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Richard G. Gustafson
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Owen S. Hamel
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Chris J. Harvey
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Mark J. Henderson
- 4U.S. Geological Survey, California Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries Biology, California State Polytechnic University Humboldt, Arcata, CA, United States
- Mark J. Henderson
- 5U.S. Geological Survey, Vermont Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
- Chris E. Jordan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Isaac C. Kaplan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Steven T. Lindley
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Nathan J. Mantua
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Sean E. Matson
- 6National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS) West Coast Region, Seattle, WA, United States
- Melissa H. Monk
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Peter Moyle
- 7Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, United States
- Colin Nicol
- 8Ocean Associates, under contract to the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA, United States
- Colin Nicol
- 9PACE Engineering, Seattle, WA, United States
- John Pohl
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Ryan R. Rykaczewski
- 0Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Honolulu, HI, United States
- Jameal F. Samhouri
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Susan Sogard
- 0Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- Nick Tolimieri
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- John Wallace
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Chantel Wetzel
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Seattle, WA, United States
- Steven J. Bograd
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), Monterey, CA, United States
- Steven J. Bograd
- 1Institute of Marine Science, University of California (UC), Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1103767
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 10
Abstract
IntroductionUnderstanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes.MethodsThis study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions.ResultsOverall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges.DiscussionAs climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.
Keywords
- climate vulnerability assessment
- marine fishes
- fisheries management
- climate change
- exposure
- sensitivity