Ecological Indicators (Mar 2021)
Impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of endemic legume species of the Guineo-Congolian forest, Africa
Abstract
Legumes (family Leguminosae) are an economically important and widely distributed species found in several regions of the world, including the Guineo-Congolian (GC) forest region. Recent studies have reported the impact of climate change on plant biodiversity. Thus, understanding the distribution pattern of the endemic legume species of the GC region under current and future climate scenarios are imperative for long-term conservation management plans. We used 762 occurrence data of the 237 endemic legume species to elucidate the habitat suitability and impact of climate change on the species. Analyses used an ecological niche modeling ensemble method to map the current and future (2050–2070) distribution patterns of the endemic legumes under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Further, we generated the ensemble of four different species distribution modeling methods to predict areas where climatically suitable regions is lost or gained under future climate change. The model predicted the current suitable areas for endemic legumes to be Southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Republic of Congo (COG), and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Our findings indicate precipitation of Warmest Quarter and seasonality as the significant climatic variables affecting the habitat suitability of endemic legumes in the GC regions. Results showed areas such as the coastal region of Cote d' Ivoire, southwest province of Cameroon, Central African Republic, COG (Ngounnie), central DRC, and southern Nigeria will experience >40% loss of climatically suitable areas by 2050. Also, species such as Baphia maxima, and Psophocarpus scandens were projected to experience a 70% reduction in their climatically suitable areas under future climate scenarios. Our study concludes that the projected distribution of the endemic legume species in the GC region will consequently decline in the future due to the gross effect of climate change. The anticipated changes in the distribution patterns of the endemic legumes could have significant ecological and socio‐economic significance. Therefore, we recommend improved conservation to protect the endemic legume species and its associated habitats in GC forest.
