Immune and endothelial activation markers and risk stratification of childhood pneumonia in Uganda: A secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study.

Abstract

BackgroundDespite the global burden of pneumonia, reliable triage tools to identify children in low-resource settings at risk of severe and fatal respiratory tract infection are lacking. This study assessed the ability of circulating host markers of immune and endothelial activation quantified at presentation, relative to currently used clinical measures of disease severity, to identify children with pneumonia who are at risk of death.Methods and findingsWe conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of children aged 2 to 59 months presenting to the Jinja Regional Hospital in Jinja, Uganda between February 2012 and August 2013, who met the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) diagnostic criteria for pneumonia. Circulating plasma markers of immune (IL-6, IL-8, CXCL-10/IP-10, CHI3L1, sTNFR1, and sTREM-1) and endothelial (sVCAM-1, sICAM-1, Angpt-1, Angpt-2, and sFlt-1) activation measured at hospital presentation were compared to lactate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) with a primary outcome of predicting 48-hour mortality. Of 805 children with IMCI pneumonia, 616 had severe pneumonia. Compared to 10 other immune and endothelial activation markers, sTREM-1 levels at presentation had the best predictive accuracy in identifying 48-hour mortality for children with pneumonia (AUROC 0.885, 95% CI 0.841 to 0.928; p = 0.03 to p ConclusionsIn this cohort of Ugandan children, sTREM-1 measured at hospital presentation was a significantly better indicator of 48-hour mortality risk than other common approaches to risk stratify children with pneumonia. Measuring sTREM-1 at clinical presentation may improve the early triage, management, and outcome of children with pneumonia at risk of death.Trial registrationThe trial was registered at clinicaltrial.gov (NCT04726826).