Development and Validation of a Risk Score Screening Tool to Identify People at Risk for Hypertension in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Qiyun Jiang,1,2 Dan Gong,1,2 Huiqi Li,3 Donglan Zhang,4 Suzhen Hu,5 Qinghua Xia,6 Hong Yuan,7 Peng Zhou,6 Yiying Zhang,7 Xing Liu,8 Mei Sun,1,2 Jun Lv,1,2 Chengyue Li1,2 1Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 2Research Institute of Health Development Strategies, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 3School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; 4Department of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; 5Department of Medical Affairs, Liaocheng People’s Hospital, Liaocheng, People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Changning District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 7Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Jiading District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 8Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Chengyue Li; Jun Lv, Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Fudan University, P.O. Box 177, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai, 200032, People’s Republic of China, Tel [phone], Fax [phone], Email [email protected]; [email protected]: This study aimed to develop a screening tool based on a risk scoring approach that could identify individuals at high risk for hypertension in Shanghai, China.Methods: A total of 3147 respondents from the 2013 Shanghai Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance were randomly divided into the derivation group and validation group. The coefficients obtained from multivariable logistic regression were used to assign a score to each variable category. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to find the optimal cut-off point and to evaluate the screening performance.Results: Age, family history of hypertension, having diabetes, having dyslipidemia, body mass index, and having abdominal obesity contributed to the risk score. The area under the ROC curve was 0.817 (95% CI: 0.797– 0.836). The optimal cut-off value of 20 had a sensitivity of 83.4%, and a specificity of 64.3%, demonstrating good performance.Conclusion: We developed a simple and valid screening tool to identify individuals at risk for hypertension. Early detection could be beneficial for high-risk groups to better manage their conditions and delay the progression of hypertension and related complications.Keywords: Eastern China, high-risk population, hypertension, risk scoring method, screening tool

Keywords

• eastern china
• high-risk population
• hypertension
• risk scoring method
• screening tool