A Managerial Approach towards Modeling the Different Strains of the COVID-19 Virus Based on the Spatial GeoCity Model

Abstract

This study proposes a modification of the GeoCity model previously developed by the authors, detailing the age structure of the population, personal schedule on weekdays and working days, and individual health characteristics of the agents. This made it possible to build a more realistic model of the functioning of the city and its residents. The developed model made it possible to simulate the spread of three types of strain of the COVID-19 virus, and to analyze the adequacy of this model in the case of unhindered spread of the virus among city residents. Calculations based on the proposed model show that SARS-CoV 2 spreads mainly from contacts in workplaces and transport, and schoolchildren and preschool children are the recipients, not the initiators of the epidemic. The simulations showed that fluctuations in the dynamics of various indicators of the spread of SARS-CoV 2 were associated with the difference in the daily schedule on weekdays and weekends. The results of the calculations showed that the daily schedules of people strongly influence the spread of SARS-CoV 2. Under assumptions of the model, the results show that for the more contagious “rapid” strains of SARS-CoV 2 (omicron), immunocompetent people become a significant source of infection. For the less contagious “slow strains” (alpha) of SARS-CoV 2, the most active source of infection is immunocompromised individuals (pregnant women). The more contagious, or “fast” strain of the SARS-CoV 2 virus (omicron), spreads faster in public transport. For less contagious, or “slow” strains of the virus (alpha), the greatest infection occurs due to work and educational contacts.

Keywords

• multi-agent system
• GEO-spatial simulation model
• COVID-19
• modelling
• geo-object
• real-time simulation