Partial equilibrium model – Case study of the poultry market

Abstract

This paper deals with identifying the main determinants in the poultry agri-food chain in the Czech Republic and examines their relationships. The partial equilibrium model, defined as a seven-equation model in power form, is employed for this purpose. The analysis is based on both time-series and panel data of the main factors in the poultry market. The time-series as well as panel data contain annual data of selected variables for the period from 1995 to 2009. The analysis is focused on supply and demand of poultry meat, specifically on production, consumption and foreign trade in poultry meat in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the main factors influencing the poultry market are determined, then, an appropriate model is employed. The parameters of the model are estimated using the ordinary least squares method in statistical and econometric software. Estimated parameters confirm assumed relationships among the selected variables. Moreover, the long-term tendencies of the selected indicators are proven. Among other, the analysis proves an inertial consumption, the price level as the main factor influencing the consumption and one-way or mutual relationship among the selected variables. The statistical features of the model are satisfied as well – the estimated parameters are statistically significant, the model does not contain, neither the problem of autocorrelation of residuals nor the problem of heteroskedasticity.

Keywords

• time series
• panel data
• partial equilibrium model
• agri-food market
• poultry