USA business cycle identification – a comparative study of chosen methods

Abstract

Presented paper deals with comparison of chosen methods used for the business cycle identification. With respect to this aim nonparametric method (kernel smoothing) and Box-Jenkins methodology were used. This comparison is performed by application on economic activity in USA 1960/Q01–2007/Q01. The residuals are tested by Box-Pierce test. Identified trend is discussed with chosen historical events which affect business cycle in the USA.

Keywords

• business cycle
• parametric method
• nonparametric method
• kernel smoothing
• Box-Jenkins methodo­logy