CMIP5-Derived Single-Forcing, Single-Model, and Single-Scenario Wind-Wave Climate Ensemble: Configuration and Performance Evaluation

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2018;6(3):90 DOI 10.3390/jmse6030090

 

Journal Homepage

Journal Title: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

ISSN: 2077-1312 (Online)

Publisher: MDPI AG

LCC Subject Category: Naval Science: Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering | Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Oceanography

Country of publisher: Switzerland

Language of fulltext: English

Full-text formats available: PDF, XML

 

AUTHORS

Alvaro Semedo (Department of Water Science and Engineering, IHE-Delft, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands)
Mikhail Dobrynin (Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, 20095 Hamburg, Germany)
Gil Lemos (Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, University of Lisbon, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal)
Arno Behrens (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany)
Joanna Staneva (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany)
Hylke de Vries (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731GA De Bilt, The Netherlands)
Andreas Sterl (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731GA De Bilt, The Netherlands)
Jean-Raymond Bidlot (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK)
Pedro M. A. Miranda (Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, University of Lisbon, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal)
Jens Murawski (Danish Meteorological Institute, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark)

EDITORIAL INFORMATION

Blind peer review

Editorial Board

Instructions for authors

Time From Submission to Publication: 8 weeks

 

Abstract | Full Text

A Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-derived single-forcing, single-model, and single-scenario dynamic wind-wave climate ensemble is presented, and its historic period (1979–2005) performance in representing the present wave climate is evaluated. A single global climate model (GCM)-forcing wave climate ensemble was produced with the goal of reducing the inter GCM variability inherent in using a multi-forcing approach for the same wave model. Seven CMIP5 EC-Earth ensemble runs were used to force seven WAM wave model realizations, while future wave climate simulations, not analyzed here, were produced using a high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) set-up. The wave climate ensemble’s historic period was extensively compared against a set of 72 in situ wave-height observations, as well as to ERA-Interim reanalysis and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) hindcast. The agreement between the wave climate ensemble and the in situ measurements and reanalysis of mean and extreme wave heights, mean wave periods, and mean wave directions was good, in line with previous studies or even better in some areas of the global ocean, namely in the extratropical latitudes. These results give a good degree of confidence in the ability of the ensemble to simulate a realistic climate change signal.