A malaria risk model for the Mediterranean in antiquity based on the historical Carta della Malaria dell’Italia

Abstract

ABSTRACTGrowing interest in the health burden of malaria in ancient times is complimented by recent DNA confirmation of its presence at several archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. This study presents a model of ancient malaria risk for the region with utility for synthesis and application. The GIS-based model combines malaria risk factors that can be reasonably known for pre-modern times. Calibration, verification, and validation of the model is possible through use of a detailed map of pre-eradication malaria endemicity in Italy, the 1882 Carta della Malaria dell’Italia. The model provides a cross-disciplinary tool by bringing technical GIS capabilities to the evaluation of textual sources having potential malarial connections. The study’s main product is an open access relative malaria risk layer for GIS use and application to historical reconstruction. Example maps using model output and potential use are presented.

Keywords

• Malaria
• malaria model
• malaria risk
• Italy
• Mediterranean
• GIS