A clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department: A prospective multicentre observational study.

Abstract

BackgroundTo develop a clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department.Methods and findingsA secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study in five European EDs (the TRIAGE study), including consecutive children aged = 3%, which was useful for ruling in a revisit with serious illness, with positive likelihood ratio 4.41 (95% CI 3.87-5.01) and specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.96). 37,546 (39%) had a risk ConclusionWe developed a prediction model and a digital calculator which can aid physicians identifying those children at highest and lowest risks for developing a serious illness after initial discharge from the ED, allowing for more targeted safety netting advice and follow-up.