Simulation and prediction of precipitation and temperature under RCP scenarios

Abstract

Climate change has an immense impact on the environment, ecology, agriculture, and economy. As the most influential climate prediction platform in the world, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides important data on predicted future climate change trends. Based on 10 models under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios, in this study, we obtained 0.5 × 0.5° data through down-scaling data processing and predicted future rainfall and temperature changes in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China. Combined with historical observed data of 198 meteorological stations in the region, the relationships between the predicted values of the model and the measured values were analyzed using the Taylor diagram method. The results show that (1) the future precipitation capacity assessed by the global climate system is generally higher than observed data; (2) for assessment of future temperatures, RCP8.5 shows a larger increase than RCP4.5; (3) for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, our results show that the Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Version of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) model is more consistent with the evaluation of future precipitation capacity, the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES) model is more consistent with the future RCP4.5 scenario temperature evaluation, and the MIROC-ESM-CHEM model is more consistent with the future RCP8.5 scenario temperature evaluation. HIGHLIGHTS The future changes and related uncertainties of rainfall and temperature in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region on an annual average scale was analyzed.; Combined with observed historical data the relationships between the model's predicted values and the measured values were analyzed.; A more suitable climate model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was selected after comparison.;

Keywords

• china
• climate change scenarios
• precipitation
• taylor diagram
• temperature