Decisions, options, and actions in the face of uncertainty: a systematic bibliometric and thematic review of climate adaptation pathways

Abstract

Climate change is already having adverse impacts, with place- and problem-based implications due to higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. Despite uncertainty about the full extent of future change, adaptation will be required. Adaptation pathways (APs) planning is increasingly used as a methodological approach to identify, evaluate, and sequence adaptation options over time. Pathways link critical decisions to future conditions, providing a road map to support planning in the face of uncertainty. This systematic review identifies and assesses the rapidly growing APs literature, focusing on its definition, and application in diverse contexts. Using bibliometric and thematic analysis, we highlight scholarly networks driving innovation in this area, characterise theoretical and conceptual differences in framing, and derive insights for best practice. Results show the evolution in interpretation, framing and practice; from an initial focus on managing uncertainty with technological- and engineered-based approaches, through to more participatory, policy- and decision-relevant pathways. Pathways planning has become increasingly collaborative, and is now used to address climate adaptation outcomes, within the broader context of interacting and compounding stressors. Results also highlight challenges in conceptualising and operationalizing APs, including comprehensive accounting for costs, and navigating social dynamics involved in process development. Based on these findings we propose new avenues for research, to develop methodologies to better engage with stakeholders’ social, political, and economic concerns, and enhance learning for climate adapted futures.

Keywords

• climate change
• decision making
• foresight
• planning
• resilience
• systematic literature review