What is Next in Terrorism? On the Way to a New Wave of Terrorism

Abstract

The ideas underlying terrorism, which can be summarized as the use of violence for political purposes, have transformed over time. One of the theories that aims to explain this transformation, the “wave theory” put forward by David C. Rapoport, claims that modern terrorism has progressed in four waves until today. The fourth wave is the current “religious wave”. There are also those who refer to this wave as “new terrorism” since it has significant differences from its predecessors in terms of motivation, organization, target selection, area of action, tactics and effective use of technology. The September 11 attacks were undoubtedly the event where the differentiation in the above-mentioned qualities was most evident. In the 2023 Global Terrorism Index report, it is pointed out that religiously motivated terrorism has decreased by 95 percent since its peak in 2016, which raises the question “what’s next?”. An analysis of recent terrorist attacks reveals the emergence of a new wave of terrorism, characterized by ideological diversity, decentralization and individualization, disinformation and lethality.

Keywords

• terrorism
• four waves theory
• david c. rapoport
• individual terrorism
• far-right terrorism