Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes

Abstract

Derechos are severe convective storms known for producing widespread damaging winds. While less frequent than in the United States of America (USA), derechos also occur in Europe. The notable European event on 18 August 2022 exhibited gusts exceeding 200 km h−1, spanning 1500 km in 12 h. This study presents a first climatology of warm-season derechos in France, identifying 38 events between 2000 and 2022. Typically associated with a southwesterly mid-level circulation, warm-season derechos in France generally initiate in the afternoon and exhibit peak activity in July, with comparable frequencies in June and August. Predominantly impacting the northeast of France, these events exhibit a maximum observed frequency of 0.65 events per year, on average, within a 200 km by 200 km square region. These characteristics are similar to those observed in Germany, with notable differences seen in the USA, where frequencies can attain significantly higher values. The study also examines synoptic and environmental changes linked with analogues of the 500 hPa geopotential height patterns associated with past warm-season derechos, comparing analogues from a relatively distant past (1950–1980) with a recent period (1992–2022). For most events, a notable increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) is observed, aligning with trends identified in previous studies for southern Europe. However, no consistent change in 0–6 km vertical wind shear is observed in the recent period. These environmental shifts align with higher near-surface temperatures, altered mid-level atmospheric flow patterns and often increased rainfall. The role of anthropogenic climate change in these changes remains uncertain, given potential influences of natural variability factors such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).